Eliminating fertiliser production emissions: the path to 10MtCO2 by 2030

How much CO2 is emitted by producing ammonia for fertiliser depends on how much ammonia we make and how much CO2 is produced by each unit of ammonia - which in turn depends on how we power this production and the source of hydrogen. This boils down to two numbers: ammonia production (MtNH3) and emissions intensity (MtCO2/MtNH3).

To discover how much emissions we would avoid now by replacing conventional ammonia, made with fossil fuels, with clean ammonia, made from air and water and powered by renewables, we take the current emissions intensity for those two production routes.

But by 2030, these numbers will undoubtedly change - ammonia production will be higher, and the way the industry powers ammonia will likely be lower as we switch away from fossil fuels. This means the baseline emissions and the emissions intensity for 2030 will differ. Delineating the path to achieving Nium’s goal by 2030 means, in a way, forecasting the future.

Economic Scenarios

To deal with this issue, organisations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) use economic models to anticipate a range of possible futures based on different policy and regulation decisions, market conditions, societal behaviour and other factors.

Two of these scenarios from recent reports highlight two possible states of the ammonia market for fertiliser in 2030 (IEA 2021). A more conservative one, Stated Policies, is based on the current trajectories if not much changes. A more optimistic one, Sustainable Development, considers more changes in technologies, fuel and behaviour, reducing baseline emissions.

Ammonia market and emissions in each scenario

The Table below shows IEA’s projections for ammonia demand and Scope 1 emissions (direct production process emissions) for each scenario. Ammonia demand for fertiliser was estimated based on current market shares.

From this data, we can estimate the other piece of the puzzle: the emissions intensity of each scenario, which reflects how much the energy sources for ammonia production and hydrogen sources might have changed by then - therefore lowering the baseline emissions in 2030.

Estimating emissions reductions

Now we know what the global emissions will be like in 2030 and how much ammonia will be produced, we can estimate how much CO2 will be avoided by producing a certain amount with Nium’s technology instead.

This calculation considered a few assumptions:

• The amount of ammonia considered was 3% of the market share, equivalent to 4.2Mt
• A mix of small, medium and large minion plants was considered, in the proportion of 10/20/70
• The emissions intensity of Nium’s ammonia for different hydrogen and energy sources was estimated based on Nium’s calculations and data from literature, as presented below:
  
  

Nium’s impact on carbon emissions

The graph below presents the emissions reductions for 4.2Mt of ammonia (3% market share) and each production route.

The emissions reduction potential for one tonne of ammonia, for all scenarios but the lowest possible, therefore varies from 1.3-2.2 tonCO2 for the Stated Policies Scenario and 0.77-1.7 for the Sustainable Development Scenario. Total emissions reductions range from 3.7 (lowest possible) to 9.25 (highest possible).

The emissions reductions reported here refer only to direct process CO2 emissions. The potential for reductions could be even higher depending on deployment strategies and co-benefits associated with fertiliser use and agricultural practices.